Anyone looking at the official figures for solar energy expansion in Africa is likely to massively underestimate the actual pace of development. While international databases continue to focus primarily on large, publicly announced solar parks and mini-grid projects, a much more dynamic reality is emerging in the background: a decentralized, privately financed, and economically driven solar boom that is spreading across the continent.
A look at import/export data from China tells the story: according to analyses by the African Solar Industry Association (AfSIA), annual expansion figures nearly quadruple once these data are taken into account. There is little evidence of large inventories so far—so there is strong reason to believe that the modules being shipped to countries across the continent are largely being bought and installed in-country.
This has far-reaching consequences: the actual solar boom in Africa is taking place not primarily in state-planned large-scale projects, but on thousands of homes and businesses across the continent: on factory roofs, at shopping centers, hotels, cell towers, farms, and in residential complexes. It is a market that is developing largely outside the radar of traditional energy planning processes.
