Market Snapshot
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market (June 30 resolution) is priced at 21.5% YES, down from 38% seven days ago. The Iranian regime fall market (December 31) sits at 13.5% YES, up from 12% in the prior 24 hours.
Key Takeaways
Pricing appears consistent with NO outcome support on Hormuz normalization, with the market declining sharply over seven days amid escalating direct U.S.-Iran exchanges.
The regime fall market’s modest 1.5-point 24-hour rise suggests participants view continued strikes on IRGC infrastructure as modestly supportive of YES, though far short of decisive destabilization thresholds.
