Bitcoin is worth roughly $224,000 if you believe sovereign debt risk is the right lens through which to price it. That’s the conclusion of a new Bitwise report that applies a credit default swap (CDS) model to the world’s largest cryptocurrency, treating it as a portfolio hedge against the growing possibility that governments can’t pay their bills.
At current prices hovering near $108K, that implies Bitcoin is trading at less than half its theoretical fair value.
The model behind the number
The $224,000 figure comes from a framework developed by credit markets expert Greg Foss, who has long argued that Bitcoin functions as a form of insurance against sovereign default. The logic: as the probability of government debt crises rises, the value of a non-sovereign, fixed-supply asset should rise in tandem.
Bitwise’s latest analysis points to some genuinely uncomfortable numbers in the bond market. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that governments and corporations will need to borrow roughly $29 trillion in 2026. That’s a 17% increase from 2024, with the bulk going toward refinancing existing debt rather than funding anything new.
