This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Canada’s unemployment rate has stabilized in the 6.7–6.9% range through April 2026, remaining below the 7.1% peak recorded in August and September 2025—the highest level since 2016 outside the pandemic years. Official Statistics Canada releases and analyst forecasts, including a 6.52% annual average projected for 2026, reflect softer labor demand amid trade uncertainty and subdued GDP growth, yet no material acceleration toward prior highs. Market-implied odds of 93% for “No” embed this trajectory, pricing in expectations that the annual rate will not surpass the 2025 benchmark or earlier post-2016 levels. Key upcoming catalysts include the May labor force survey and Bank of Canada policy communications, which could influence hiring trends if growth disappoints further.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
