Last night, the Carlyle Group’s Jeff Currie and Veriten’s Arjun Murti joined Real Vision's Ash Bennington for a ZeroHedge Debate on what the oil market is getting wrong. Surprise surprise… the EU is not looking good. But the U.S. may be in trouble too. Currie doubled down on his reserves-to-run-dry-by-July call.They each gave their outlook on structural supply constraints that existed before the Hormuz debacle, whether the latest ‘ceasefire’ can be trusted, and where the price is headed and how quickly it’s headed there. Despite signs of relief in the Mid-East, many signs still read bullish oil (and thus bearish cost of living).Here were the highlights for those short on time:Currie’s July 4th Doomer CallCurrie on his recent warning that global oil inventories could run into serious shortages as early as July:"There's a misnomer that the eight billion barrels of oil that you see in storage around the world is all usable,” he said, noting that fuel is not homogenous (jet, diesel, gasoline, etc.) and that 8 billion is not actually that much… “Every single energy analyst says sometime in that July, August is when you get into pretty serious problems."The current calm in prices, Currie said, reflects seasonal demand weakness rather than a genuine easing of supply constraints. "Why you haven't seen this? We're in the seasonal low of demand," he explained. "April and May it goes down like this, and then June it just goes straight up five million barrels a day." Murti agreed that shortages are likely to emerge region by region and product by product… where one country runs out of jet fuel, another gasoline. He added that developing Asia appears particularly vulnerable while Europe remains heavily exposed after years of energy underinvestment.Asked how long it takes for shortages to be felt once inventories are exhausted:"When you're out of something, it's it. That's it. It's over... it's instantaneous."pic.twitter.com/DNrstsJMDL