The Premier League title race would have entered the final match round with Manchester City two points clear of Arsenal, according to The Athletic’s analysis of key match decisions made by referees and their video assistants.Fulham would have qualified for the Europa League at Sunderland’s expense, but the same three teams would still have been relegated if the officials had reached the outcomes preferred by the Premier League’s independent panel of former players.The panel meets weekly throughout the season to assess every key match incident (KMI), defined as potential or actual red cards, penalties and offences in the attacking phase before a goal.Its scorecard overall suggests few clubs can blame refereeing errors for their final league placing, but the title race may have taken a different course.We went through every outcome of the KMI panel and compiled a list of on-field errors that were not corrected by VAR, and the three decisions that were right in the first place, but the video official overturned wrongly.After removing factual decisions relating to offsides and the ball being out of play, we then assessed whether the incorrect call had an impact on the match.For example, a penalty wrongly awarded to Arsenal in added time against Leeds United was discounted, as the resultant spot kick was converted to take the score from 4-0 to 5-0.We assume that penalties would have been scored, and that early red cards would have much greater impact than those in the final few minutes.The biggest beneficiaries were Arsenal, Chelsea and Sunderland, who we reckon were each four points better off. By contrast, Bournemouth were down by four points, and Fulham by three.Only in the case of Newcastle United did decisions truly equal themselves out over the season.The data also suggests there may be some truth in the argument that referees are reluctant to commit to decisions given the existence of VAR’s safety net.According to the KMI panel, a further 17 red cards and 36 penalties should have been awarded on the field over the course of the season, even if many of these were not so obviously incorrect that the VAR should have intervened.There was a clear home advantage in relation to spot kicks, as the hosts were awarded 45 compared to the visitors’ 35. The panel found that it should have been a 58-58 draw had all decisions been made correctly in the first place.Drill down further and there are innumerable anomalies. For example, there were only six penalties awarded on-field in matches involving Chelsea, but the KMI reckons there should have been 16. Brentford managed to be involved in incidents that should have led to 24 penalties, while Aston Villa were at the other end of the range on three.Some readers may disagree with our analysis, and of course there are many decisions that the KMI panel deemed correct or incorrect that fans from all teams will dispute.But the KMI panel’s musings offer the only official record of the 2025-26 season and still provide a fascinating insight into the impact that referees and VARs have on the final league table.ArsenalThe champions generally had the rub of the green throughout the season, and in three matches decisions went their way that almost certainly had a positive impact on their final points tally.All involved penalties that should have been awarded against them in matches they won by a single goal. William Saliba fouled Thierno Barry at Everton by kicking through his leg in the area.Declan Rice handled at home against Chelsea from a corner in the area while grappling with Jorrel Hato…… and Gabriel Martinelli hauled Mats Wieffer to the ground at Brighton & Hove Albion as a cross came in.The only call the other way that had a likely impact on the outcome was a missed subjective offside at Stamford Bridge, Trevoh Chalobah scoring from a corner despite Enzo Fernandez standing beyond David Raya, which was Chelsea’s solitary goal in a 1-1 draw.Net gain: four pointsAston VillaVilla’s only meaningful gripe was the referee’s failure to dismiss James Garner for a second yellow card for felling Morgan Rogers on the edge of the area in their home match with Everton.The score was 0-0 at the time, in the 57th minute, and the visitors snatched a late winner.Net loss: Two pointsBrighton & Hove AlbionOne-nil down at home against the future champions, Brighton should have been awarded a penalty just before half-time when Wieffer was pulled over by Martinelli. There was a long way to go but Fabian Hurzeler’s side were deprived a great chance to secure a point.Net loss: one pointBournemouthWith the scores level at 2-2 in the 54th minute at Chelsea, Malo Gusto handled in the box from a James Tavernier cross, but Bournemouth’s appeals were wrongly waved away and VAR failed to intervene.Drawing 0-0 at home with Brentford in March, the visitors should have conceded a penalty and been put down to 10 men when Tavernier was tripped in the area by Michael Kayode.There were incidents in both their matches with Sunderland that arguably evened each other out. They should not have conceded a penalty at the Stadium of Light when Alex Scott challenged Reinildo in a game they lost 3-2, but at home, they were lucky when Alex Jimenez’s clumsy barge into Enzo Le Fee went unpunished in a 1-1 draw.