Monsoon clouds drift back from Maldives to park over Lakshadweep Islands, a shouting distance away from Kerala, on Monday morning.
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www.windy.com
Rain clouds are once again consolidating over the south-east Arabian Sea and advancing towards Lakshadweep and the Kerala coast, even though the monsoon itself has yet to move beyond Sunday’s position.On Monday morning, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continued to run just south of Kanyakumari, extending through northern Sri Lanka before sweeping diagonally across the Bay of Bengal into Myanmar.Conditions favourableThe India Meteorological Department (IMD) said conditions are favourable for the monsoon to advance further into parts of Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and adjoining areas of the Bay of Bengal over the next four to five days.It has forecast very heavy rainfall over Kerala and Mahe for four days beginning Wednesday, coinciding with the expected window for monsoon onset. Isolated to scattered light-to-moderate rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds of 40-50 km/hr are likely over Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep on Monday and Tuesday.Heavy rain forecastHeavy rain is also forecast at isolated places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal during the next four days; over Kerala and Mahe on Monday and Tuesday; Lakshadweep for the next six days; Coastal Karnataka for four days from Wednesday; and over South Interior Karnataka on Monday.On the Bay of Bengal side, isolated to scattered rain, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal for four days; Telangana for six days; North Interior Karnataka for four days; and South Interior Karnataka on Monday. Thunder squalls with winds of 50-60 km/h, gusting to 70 km/h, may affect Rayalaseema, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Coastal Karnataka during the next four days.Fortnightly outlookLooking further ahead, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) indicates that rainfall over the next fortnight may remain concentrated along the coasts of Kerala and Karnataka, while also extending into parts of central Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The outlook suggests Mumbai may have to wait well beyond its usual monsoon onset date of June 10 for sustained rains.No MJO supportMeanwhile, there appears to be little support for the monsoon from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the eastward-moving pulse of tropical convection that periodically enhances rainfall over the Indian Ocean. Forecasts show an incoming MJO weakening over the Western Hemisphere and Africa by June 19 before becoming indistinct through the remainder of the month. Current guidance offers no clear indication of its return to the Indian Ocean in time to provide meaningful support to the monsoon.Published on June 1, 2026
