Australia must start preparing for life after gas or risk bill hikes, missed climate targets and manufacturers shutting up shop, warns a prominent think tank.

Bans on new household gas connections, reworked green hydrogen incentives and a windfall profit tax on the export industry feature in the Grattan Institute’s extensive report on Australia’s deteriorating relationship with the fuel.

The think tank says demand for both domestic and exported liquefied natural gas (LNG) product is projected to decline.

It argues an even faster drop off will be needed than implied by the federal government’s gas strategy projections to meet Australia’s international climate commitments, including net zero by 2050.

Burning gas to cook food, manufacture goods and generate electricity releases greenhouse gas emissions but so does getting it out of the ground and processing it, together amounting to roughly 20 per cent of Australia’s carbon pollution.