Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Ongoing NASA and ESA near-Earth object surveys have identified no cataloged asteroids or comets on collision courses with Earth in 2026 capable of releasing 10 kilotons or more of energy, supporting the 83.5% market-implied probability for no major strike. Recent 2026 fireball detections reflect only small meteoroids well below this threshold, consistent with normal activity rather than any elevated risk. Traders factor in the low historical frequency of such events—roughly once per several decades—alongside improving detection capabilities that reduce the chance of undetected threats materializing before year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include continued Sentry system updates and any new trajectory refinements from ongoing telescopic observations.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETVolume$159,276End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedDec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.