This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Current NASA and ESA monitoring of near-Earth objects shows no known asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories that would produce a 5-kiloton or greater atmospheric impact in 2026, with all recent close approaches—such as 2026 JH2, 2026 FM3, and 2026 HW2—confirmed as safe flybys at distances well beyond the Moon. Continuous sky surveys have not identified any objects in the relevant size range (roughly several meters across) with impact probabilities above negligible levels, consistent with the historical rarity of such events absent a specific detection. Model refinements and observational data continue to lower uncertainty for larger bodies while small meteoroids remain statistically unpredictable far in advance, supporting trader consensus that no qualifying strike will occur. Ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end represent the next key monitoring checkpoints.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETVolume$304,449End DateDec 31, 2026Market OpenedDec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
