Nifty 50, Sensex and the Nifty Bank index opened the week on a positive note with a wide gap-up on Monday. However, they failed to get a strong follow-through rise after that. Sensex and Nifty fell sharply on Friday giving away all the gains. The indices closed the week lower by 0.8 and 0.7 per cent, respectively. Nifty Bank index also witnessed a strong sell-off on Friday. However, it managed to close the week marginally higher by 0.3 per cent. The Sensex, Nifty 50 and the Nifty Bank indices look vulnerable to fall more from here. To avoid the fall, the indices have to bounce back immediately and breach their near-term resistance decisively.FPIs SellThe Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continue to sell Indian equities. However, the quantum of selling has come down in the last two weeks. The equity segment saw a net outflow of about $268 million last week. The FPIs have sold about $3.45 billion in the month of May. There has been a net outflow of about $22.64 billion in the last three months.Video Credit: BusinesslineNifty 50 (23,547.75)Short-term view: Failure to get a strong follow-through rise and a sharp fall on Friday has turned the short-term picture weak. Nifty looks vulnerable for a fall to 23,000. A break below 23,000 can drag the index further down to 22,400 in the coming weeks. A fall beyond 22,400 is less likely. We can expect the index to reverse higher from around 22,400 again.Key resistances are at 23,700, 23,850 and 23,900. Nifty has to breach these hurdles and then get a sustained rise above 24,000. Only then the chances of a rise to 24,300 and 24,700 will come back into the picture.Medium-term view: The broader 22,000-26,500 range remains intact for now. Earlier, we had expected the index to move up within this range. But now, it looks like Nifty can fall back again towards the lower end of the range.However, the big picture remains positive. We retain our bullish view of seeing a break above 26,500 eventually. Such a break can take the Nifty higher to 28,000 and 30,000 in the long term.A fall below 22,000 is needed to turn the outlook bearish. That looks less likely in the absence of any new and strong negative trigger.Nifty Bank (54,239.20)Short-term view: Nifty Bank index broke the resistance at 55,100 initially last week but did not sustain. Immediate support is at 53,700 which can be tested in the near term. A bounce from this support and a subsequent rise above 54,500 can be bullish for a rise to 56,000-56,500.But if the index breaks below 53,700, it can come under more selling pressure. In that case, a fall to 51,000-50,500 can be seen.Medium-term view: The broader bullish view will remain intact as long as the index stays above 50,000. Intermediate resistances are at 58,500 and 60,500. A decisive rise above 60,500 can boost the momentum for a rise to 64,000-65,000 in the medium term. That in turn will keep the doors open for a rally to 68,000-69,000 in the long term.The bullish view will get negated only if the Nifty Bank index declines below 50,000. But that looks less likely as seen from the charts.Sensex (74,775.74)Short-term view: The rise to 76,500 happened last week but did not sustain. Sensex touched a high of 76,627 and then fell sharply giving back all the gains. The index can test 74,100 initially this week. A break below it can drag it down to 73,000 in the short term.The region between 76,500 and 77,100 is a crucial resistance zone. Sensex has to rise past 77,100 to get some breather. Only then the chances of a rise to 78,000 and higher will come back into the picture.Medium-term view: the index is now coming down within its broad 71,000-86,000 range. In case the fall extends beyond 73,000, the downside can be limited to 71,000.We retain our positive bias to see a bullish breakout above 86,000 eventually. That will then take the Sensex higher to 90,000 initially. It will also have the potential to target 94,000 over the long term.This bullish view will go wrong only if the Sensex declines below 71,000. If that happens, a fall to 69,000 can be seen.Nifty Midcap 150 (22,571.40)The index has come down sharply after making a high of 23,007 last week. Immediate support is at 22,400. A break below it can drag the Nifty Midcap 150 index down to 21,900-21,800 in the short term.The broader picture continues to remain positive. Crucial resistance is at 23,100. We expect the index to breach this hurdle in the coming weeks. Such a break can take the Nifty Midcap 150 index 26,000-26,500 initially. It will also keep the doors open for the index to target 28,000-28,500 in the long term.The region between 21,800 and 21,600 is a good short-term support. Lower supports are at 21,300 and 20,800. The index has to decline below 20,800 to turn the outlook bearish and negate the above-mentioned bullish view.Nifty Smallcap 250 (16,992.10)The rise above 16,900 keeps the broader bullish view intact. Immediate support is in the 16,900-16,800 region. The short-term picture will turn negative for a fall to 16,600-16,500 only if the index declines below 16,800.If the index manages to sustain above 16,800, there are good chances to see rise to 17,500 in the coming week. That will also keep intact our view of testing 18,000 in the short term.The region around 18,300 is a crucial resistance. We expect the index to surpass this hurdle going forward. That in turn will boost the momentum and take Nifty Smallcap 250 index higher to 22,500-23,000 and even 24,000 in the long term.The index has to decline below 14,000 to negate his bullish view which looks unlikely at the moment.
Index Outlook: Hang in there
Market outlook suggests vulnerability in Nifty 50, Sensex, and Nifty Bank indices, with potential for further declines.









