## Market Snapshot
The market for a possible U.S. invasion of Iran by the end of 2026 is currently priced at 19.5% YES, down from 20% 24 hours ago. This reflects a slight decrease in perceived likelihood, following Hegseth’s defense announcement.
## Key Takeaways
– The announcement appears to suggest an escalation in U.S. strategic planning regarding Iran. – Pricing suggests limited immediate impact on the likelihood of a U.S. invasion. – Activity remains consistent with ongoing tensions in the region.
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