This is just one of the stories from our “I’ve Always Wondered” series, where we tackle all of your questions about the world of business, no matter how big or small. Ever wondered if recycling is worth it? Or how store brands stack up against name brands? Check out more from the series here.James Bennett from Granger, Indiana, asks:The retail price of motor oil is always pretty stable. Even when crude goes from $50 a barrel, doubling to $100 a barrel, the stores don’t run out and raise all the retail prices. Shouldn't the price of motor oil fluctuate more?Customers have seen gas prices go up more than 50% since the war in Iran started, with stations in states like California charging more than $6 a gallon. The price of motor oil — a lubricant that’s made from crude oil, natural gas or other materials — tends not to be as volatile. But some experts in the automotive and oil industries say that motor oil prices could start rising amid a potential shortage this summer. A jug of motor oil – around 5 quarts – can cost $25 or even up to $50, depending on the quality of the oil, said Clark Williams-Derry, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. The feedstock, or raw material, for motor oil is a smaller share of its price compared to gasoline. Most of the cost of motor oil comes from the refining process, Williams-Derry explained. (Feedstock can consist of oils, natural gas or natural gas liquids, Williams-Derry said.) “Because the cost of motor oil is mostly about refining and synthesizing rather than the feedstocks, when the price of feedstocks varies, it doesn't really change the cost of oil as much as it does for gasoline,” Williams-Derry said. While gasoline is also highly refined, motor oil is refined to a higher standard, Williams-Derry pointed out. There are five base groups of motor oil, with some that are derived from substances that are not oil, which means they don’t follow the same trends as gasoline, William-Derry said. Even if some lubricants are made out of oil feedstock, then others can’t go up in price, because then consumers may opt to buy a motor oil from another category, Williams-Derry said.But while the price of motor oil tends to be more stable than gas, a potential shortage this June could push up prices for consumers.More than 45% of the North American supply of group III base oil — which is used to make lubricants for vehicles that have been built since 2013 — comes out of the Middle East, said Holly Alfano, chief executive officer of the Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association. On top of the Strait of Hormuz’s closure, which has constrained the supply of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, oil facilities have been damaged, exacerbating the issue. Shell’s Pearl GTL facility, the largest producer of group III base oil, was hit by an Iranian missile after the war started and is expected to be shut down for over a year, Alfano said.Some oil blenders are considering reformulating the product, but it has to meet certain performance standards, Alfano said. A “fair amount” of Group III inventory exists, but that supply has started to go down. By mid-summer, there could be shortages at the retail level, Alfano said.Michael Chung, the senior director of market intelligence at Auto Care Association, a nonprofit that represents parts manufacturers, repair facilities and retailers, said one Virginia repair shop he spoke to has seen the price of a quart of motor oil go up by a few cents, but it hasn’t passed that cost onto customers. Another shop hasn’t seen shortages, but they’re anticipating future supply constraints, which could prompt them to raise prices at their shop by 10% to 20%. And one shop owner with multiple stores has seen the price of motor oil go up by 80 cents per gallon and has already passed on those prices to customers. President Donald Trump has been deliberating whether to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could help alleviate motor oil supply issues — to an extent. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the supply of motor oil will continue to be affected until the the facilities that produce group III base oil are back up and running, Alfano said. But if there’s a deal struck, “at least that would be a first step,” Alfano said. Despite these shortage concerns, Alfano said she doesn’t want people to panic because then that creates artificial demand. “Stick with your normal oil change schedule, and make sure you’re using the right oil for your vehicle as recommended by the owner's manual,” Alfano said.