Prices at the pump have surged and global fertilizer shortages are spreading because of the war in Iran, but the most immediate supply chain crisis hitting consumers may be one that arrives every 5,000 miles: the routine engine oil change.
Despite the United States’ world-leading oil production and refining capacity, the country is increasingly dependent on Middle Eastern supplies for the specific base oils that comprise most modern motor oils and lubricants. Now, lubricant refiners, automakers, and oil change service stations are sounding the alarm—prices are spiking, and supply shortages will hit in June.
The catalyst is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February. Spot prices for the affected base oils have nearly tripled to all-time highs, while many motor oil prices are up roughly 35% and still climbing, according to industry analysts.
The Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association has warned of a “global base oil supply crisis” and an “imminent shortage” of low-viscosity motor oils—the most common grades used in newer vehicles today.
“[Auto shops] are being warned by their suppliers that availability will be a problem in June, and certain types of oil will become more scarce,” said Michael Chung, senior director of market intelligence for the Auto Care Association. “They’re actually expecting a huge [motor] oil price increase in June.”
