Skip to Content News Archives Economy Energy Oil & Gas Renewables Electric Vehicles Mining Commodities Agriculture Real Estate Mortgages Mortgage Rates Finance Banking Insurance Fintech Cryptocurrency Work Wealth Smart Money Wealth Management Investor Personal Finance Family Finance Retirement Taxes High Net Worth FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials More Innovation Information Technology FP500 Podcasts Small Business Lives Told Tails Told Shopping Financial Post Store Obituaries Place a Notice Advertising Advertising With Us Advertising Solutions Postmedia Ad Manager Sponsorship Requests Classifieds Place a Classifieds ad Working Profile Settings My Subscriptions Saved Articles My Offers Newsletters Customer Service FAQ News Economy Energy Mining Real Estate Finance Work Wealth Investor FP Comment Executive Women Puzzmo Newsletters Financial Times Business Essentials HomeReal EstateMortgagesMortgage RatesRate hike still expected this year, despite latest GDP reportRobert McLister: Friday’s GDP report was skewed by quirky factors in the metals market, and preliminary April growth is looking much stronger You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.Bank of Canada building in Ottawa. Photo by HYUNGCHEOL PARK/Postmedia filesCanada is technically in a recession if you go by old economics textbooks. But that’s a thin reason to start daydreaming about future rate cuts.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountorFriday’s GDP report was skewed by quirky factors in the metals market, and preliminary April growth is looking much stronger.Given that and ample inflation uncertainty, markets are still fully pricing in a Bank of Canada rate hike by year-end, according to derivatives data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG). And that may not change unless peace miraculously takes hold in the Persian Gulf and oil gets much cheaper.Meanwhile, the mortgage market made a few minor tweaks to leading rates — nothing dramatic.Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try againTo start with, we saw five-basis-point increases in several of the lowest nationally advertised fixed offers. A five-year fixed now starts at 4.24 per cent uninsured, or near four per cent if insured.Three-year terms stay the crowd favourite though, going for at least 10 to 20 basis points less than five-year terms if uninsured, and roughly 4.04 per cent and up for insured borrowers.On the variable side, where interest is picking up after today’s recession chatter, multiple banks improved discounts this week by at least five basis points.But keep your eye on Canadian and U.S. core inflation, as they’ll decide the fate of rate floaters. A U.S.-Iran “peace” deal provides hope on that front, but guarantees precisely nothing yet.Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.For the best national insured and uninsured mortgage rates, updated daily, please visit our mortgage rate page here. 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Rate hike still expected this year, despite latest GDP report
Friday’s GDP report was skewed by quirky factors in the metals market, and preliminary April growth is looking much stronger. Find out more.
TL;DRAI
Despite Canada's technically recessionary Q1 GDP print, derivatives data from LSEG show markets remain fully pricing in a Bank of Canada rate hike before year-end, as preliminary April growth looks significantly stronger and inflation uncertainty persists. For finance and ops leaders, the signal is clear: variable-rate debt repricing is not off the table, and any budget assumptions built on near-term cuts should be stress-tested against a higher-for-longer scenario.
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