Within hours of when I posted yesterday’s essay on the decline of tokenmaxxing, I saw further converging evidence, such as this: Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭@ThierryBorgeatThe price to rent an Nvidia H200 just collapsed from $7/hr to $4/hr in three weeks.
A -40% drop in the cost of the single most strategic asset in tech.
When the underlying commodity that powers your entire thesis loses 40% of its value in a month, that usually means one of twoThierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat🚨 The AI ROI numbers are starting to look very ugly.
Even under "best case" assumptions — assuming zero costs, just revenue against capex — the Financial Times calculated the implied return on hyperscaler AI investment from 2025 to 2030.
Only one of them clears positive.7:43 PM · May 28, 2026 · 877K Views278 Replies · 573 Reposts · 2.69K Likesand Financial Times@FTAmazon scraps AI leaderboard to stop workers chasing usage scores ft.trib.alAmazon scraps AI leaderboard to stop workers chasing usage scores8:54 PM · May 28, 2026 · 41.5K Views28 Replies · 61 Reposts · 293 LikesFurthermore I saw bunch of other people saying similar things noting the apparent decline of toxenmaxxing, such as Fortune’s Jeremy Kahn in his newsletter:So ok, if that’s true, what’s next? Here are two takes. First my own:And second, AI researcher and benchmark creator Lisan al Gaib, who fired back in a reply to me with a totally different, far more optimistic set of predictions, spelled out in admirable detail:Within minutes, the contrasting pair of predictions become a meme: ShareWe agreed to check back in 12 months to see how these predictions are going.Stay tuned. And feel free to drop a comment below. Leave a commentNo posts
