The Turkish leadership is hesitant about whether it is appropriate at this stage to “press the button,” returning relations with Greece to a state of tension, effectively declaring the end of the Athens Declaration of 2023. Indeed, the law that has been announced through leaks, and concerns the codification of the “Blue Homeland” doctrine, will cause a breach of trust, which, due to the domestic dynamics in both countries, may take on large, if not uncontrollable dimensions.
Greece is in a quasi-election period and the government, understandably, mainly due to the pressure exerted on national issues by the parties on its right and the so-called “patriotic” wing of New Democracy, will not disregard any provocation to which it is obliged to respond decisively anyway. Turkey, after the expected decision of a court to remove the leadership in the Republican People’s Party (CHP) – that is, the official opposition, which in many polls in the past year and a half has appeared to be either ahead of or marginally behind the ruling party – may also resort to elections in 2027. So, both leaders will become less conciliatory and will not seek the slightest progress in relations until the next elections.
