Iran missile attack on US ships escalates Strait of Hormuz tensions

## Market Snapshot

The market for “Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July 31” is priced at 60% YES, up from 57% a day ago. Meanwhile, “Iran closes its airspace by May 31” is priced at 5% YES, down from 21% a day ago.

## Key Takeaways

– The recent missile attack by Iran on U.S. ships suggests increased tension, which could impact the normalization of Strait of Hormuz traffic. – Qatar’s unfreezing of Iranian assets appears to be part of an indirect negotiation process, potentially easing some diplomatic tensions. – The attack raises the probability of Iran closing its airspace, though current market pricing suggests this remains unlikely in the immediate term.

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