Depending on which day it is, the ongoing peace talks between the United States and Iran are either a few days away from being finalised or close to hitting another roadblock. The status of the negotiations fluctuate about as much as Donald Trump’s mood swings. For those on the outside looking in, the whole storyline can be discombobulating. It doesn’t help that US and Iran are still taking pop-shots at each other. Early on Thursday morning, Tehran attacked a US base in response to a fresh round of US strikes on an Iranian base in Bandar Abbas.
Fortunately, the shooting is not killing the diplomacy – at least not yet. There does appear to be a general framework on the table. According to reports, Iran and the US are zeroing in on a deal that would pause the war for another 30 to 60 days, re-open the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US blockade of Iranian ports and bring both countries into more detailed negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme. But even this simple framework is more complicated than meets the eye. Washington and Tehran don’t necessarily have a common definition of what it means to end the war and what any truce should cover.
Iran’s position is that Lebanon must be included in any peace settlement signed with the Americans. The small Arab state hugging the Mediterranean has seen continuous warfare between Israel and Hezbollah since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023 terrorist attacks on Israel. Despite multiple ceasefires, including one that was extended by another 45 days during Israeli-Lebanese talks in Washington on May 15, the shooting, bombing and drone strikes have persisted. Southern Lebanon, where the bulk of Hezbollah’s support base resides, is virtually cut-off from the rest of the country, with nearly ten kilometres already occupied by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). That zone is moving further north every day. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered an acceleration of the military campaign against Hezbollah. About 150 Hezbollah targets were struck by Israeli aircraft in the preceding 24 hours, and Israeli forces are issuing more additional evacuation orders, including in the major city of Tyre.
