Beneath the Surface By Dakuku Peterside
Dakuku Peterside By Beneath the Surface
The possibility of Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Bola Ahmed Tinubu meeting again on Nigeria’s 2027 presidential ballot is now a defining scenario for the next political cycle. If it happens, 2027 will not simply replay 2023; instead, it will be a rematch under harsher skies. The contest will be shaped by memories of economic pain, political disappointment, and insecurity. Growing national anxiety questions whether democracy can still improve lives.
The 2023 election was fought on hope, resentment, identity, party loyalty, protest, and fragmentation. If these three men—Obi, Tinubu, and Atiku—return, the contest will hinge on voters’ memories. Nigerians will weigh what they accomplished, what they failed to deliver, and what they still represent, not just campaign promises. The race will shift from ambition to a test of credibility.
The numbers from 2023 remain instructive. Tinubu won 8,794,726 votes. Atiku came second with 6,984,520. Obi followed with 6,101,533. Tinubu’s 36.61 per cent share secured victory in a fragmented race. That fragmentation was central to the outcome. If the same three men meet again in 2027, the key question may not be who is most popular. It may be who has learned most from the arithmetic of division.
