The African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned of the economic fallout of the ongoing war in the Middle East in its latest African Economic Outlook report for 2026.
Released at the AfDB’s annual meetings in Brazzaville, the AfDB forecasts that real GDP per capita growth will slip to 1.9% this year – down from 2.1% in 2025 – before rebounding to 2.2% in 2027. These figures remain below the 3.5% which the Bank says is needed to “enhance inclusive growth.”
The consequences of the war in the Middle East and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz (pictured), a key conduit for global oil supplies, vary depending on the region: the AfDB believes that Central Africa will in fact grow more rapidly this year – at 3.8% compared to 3.6% in 2025 – thanks to higher commodity prices, especially oil.
Growth in East Africa, by contrast, is expected to decline from 6.6% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026, which reflects “the impact of supply chain disruptions, primarily due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have contributed to rising energy and import costs, and intensified food security vulnerabilities.”
Growth in South and North Africa – the latter the nearest region geographically to the war – is also expected to take a hit for similar reasons, with West Africa’s prospects remaining largely unchanged.
