A new joint forecast from the UN’s meteorological agency and the UK Met Office warns that global temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels through the next five years, with at least one year likely to surpass the current hottest year on record.
The annual climate outlook projects that average global surface temperatures between 2026 and 2030 will range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), signaling a continued upward trend in global warming.
According to the report, global temperatures are likely to stay close to record highs throughout this year and the following four years. Scientists also expect that within the 2026–2030 period, there will be at least one year when global averages exceed those recorded in 2024, which marked the first time the 1.5°C threshold was breached.
“There is very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the average global temperature is continuing to rise,” said Melissa Seabrook, a researcher at the UK Met Office.
The report also highlights that warming is not evenly distributed across the planet. The Arctic is expected to experience temperature increases at a significantly faster rate than other regions, amplifying long-term environmental risks in the area.
