Global temperatures set to stay near record levels: UN weather agency
A report produced by the UK Met Office and released on Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.It also found there is a 91 per cent likelihood that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years.The 1.5°C mark is a key benchmark under the Paris Agreement on climate change, with scientists warning that exceeding it for prolonged periods would sharply increase the risks of extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity and displacement.Climate goals still attainableSuch temporary breaches do not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term climate goals are unattainable since the accord refers to warming sustained over decades rather than individual years.Still, the forecasts underscore the accelerating pace of global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme heat events.Annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.The report said there is also a 75 per cent chance that the average warming across the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5°C.“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author.
