## Market Snapshot
Fed rate cuts prediction markets for 2026 currently indicate a 66.3% YES probability for no rate cuts this year, consistent with previous levels. Sub-market odds for a rate cut by June 2026 stand at 2.2% YES, reflecting a slight increase from earlier levels.
## Key Takeaways
– Fed Chair Goolsbee’s comments on persistent energy inflation appear to be consistent with support for the scenario of no rate cuts in 2026. – Market participants may interpret ongoing inflationary pressures as reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term. – The impact of the Iran war on energy prices is suggested to have a significant effect on monetary policy outlooks.
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