The global wheat market is entering what experts describe as a structural turning point, with early projections for the 2026 harvest indicating that worldwide consumption will surpass production. This assessment was presented by Vasil Simov, executive director of the Sofia Commodity Exchange (SCE), during an appearance on NOVA NEWS, where he highlighted a notable imbalance emerging in global grain supply dynamics.
Simov said the coming harvest is expected to fall by around 45 million tons compared to previous periods, marking a significant contraction in global output.
“For the first time in many years, wheat consumption will outpace production worldwide,” he stated, pointing to a shift that could reshape international grain markets.
Despite these global pressures, Bulgaria is expected to maintain a stable position. Domestic output is projected between 6 and 6.5 million tons of wheat, while internal consumption is estimated at roughly 1.5 to 2 million tons. According to Simov, this balance ensures adequate national reserves and continued export potential.
He also addressed developments in the sunflower sector, noting contrasting trends between regions. Russia has seen a marked increase in sunflower prices over the past year, while France has experienced a decline. Simov attributed the divergence primarily to differences in yields and consumption patterns across regions, emphasizing that Western Europe has benefited from stronger harvests and lower demand for oilseed sunflower. In Bulgaria, however, he said the market remains stable with no major disruptions in either pricing or demand.
