Government Housing Bank expects full-year contraction due to energy shock factors
Visitors check out real estate listings at the 48th House and Condo Expo, at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok on Oct 25, 2025. (Photo: Pattanapong Hirunard)
Thailand’s housing market showed signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2026, the Government Housing Bank said on Wednesday, with transaction volumes rising amid government stimulus even as gains in value lagged, underscoring weak purchasing power.The outlook remains fragile, with rising energy costs linked to the Middle East war, soft domestic demand and a pullback in foreign buying expected to weigh on the sector through the rest of the year, the state-owned lender said.
The housing market is expected to decline slightly in 2026 due to energy costs and inflation, though declines will be limited by government stimulus, an extension of eased loan-to-value rules for mortgages for another year and fee cuts for certain transactions, the bank said.
Foreign condominium demand weakened sharply in the first quarter, with transfers down 17% year-on-year in both volume and value, though foreigners still accounted for a significant share of transactions.
