The annual tabling of the budget and the budget reply may have been presented as a dusty ritual but the secret to understanding how it has landed is to recognise that the world is changing, perhaps irrevocably.We are in a new asymmetric political contest in which a dominant party is imposing its agenda on a fragmented polity as a wounded opposition staves off a rising populist wave and a growing band of independents look to formalise their own coalition.To the extent the government has taken a post-budget hit, it has mainly been from propagating incendiary memes that place virality over veracity.The less-than-rave reviews in the broader sentiment reflect both the sugar hit success of this guerrilla campaign and a general malaise in a time of rolling economic crises way beyond the government’s control.Step back from the noise and the tune becomes clearer: Labor is exercising the power of the historic mandate secured a year ago by expending political capital to unwind the pro-wealth settings that were the enduring legacy of the Howard era.To do so successfully it needs to win three strategic contests: get past the promise it has broken, demonstrate a real impact on the material wellbeing of young people and tap into a broader collective economic consciousness.This week’s Guardian Essential Report does not purport to predict how these three parallel battles will conclude but it is illuminating in setting the lines of engagement.On the issue of “changing one’s position” it seems that, for many, the breaking of election commitments is now baked into the system as acceptable, provided there is a compelling justification.Which of the following is closest to your view?Labor in power has been careful in the promises it has broken. In the first term it walked back its commitment to the awful stage-three tax cuts of the Morrison era, which would have taken an axe to Australia’s progressive tax system. It wore the opprobrium because it rightly made the calculation that the result would benefit the majority.Again, the government is banking on there being more winners than losers who benefit from this shift but figures suggest there is the risk of collateral damage, particularly when the government is called to make commitments before the next poll.The long-term risk is that in pursuing a noble end, the means are seen as further proof of the corruption of the democratic process, driving more disaffection to the populist fringes and planting landmines for future campaigns.The second key battle is over the substantive changes these measures seek to address: the way the housing market has built an unconscionable stratification of investors, first home buyers and renters.Thinking about the changes introduced for negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount in the budget, which of the following best reflects your view when it comes to the impact on younger people?The challenge for the government here is that when asked about complex tax changes which are only really understood by the people who access them, many people just don’t know whether the changes are good or bad.It will take heart from the fact that its fairness argument is landing best with young people but these numbers show there is substantial work to do in bringing the changes to life for this key audience.The best thing going for Labor is the high dudgeon of the likes of News Corp, also the largest shareholder of Australia’s premier real estate platform. Its constant attacks reinforce the message that Labor is doing something meaningful.The broader challenge for the government is to show how the incremental unwinding of these tax concessions has a real impact on the problems afflicting young buyers and renters.This is where the things outside the tax policy, notably the availability of rentals and the delivery of affordable and social housing, will be just as important in earning support for these changes over the life of the parliament.In contrast, the Coalition is deploying housing as a weapon, zeroing in on immigrants as the cause of the housing ills. This addresses the only crisis that really concerns it at present: the flood of voters to the right.The degree to which these objectively populist policies are mere window dressing are reflected in the fact that the Coalition has barely mentioned them since.But the battles over truth and housing are mere skirmishes in the face of the more consequential contest over how society balances the interests of workers and those with capital.John Howard spent 13 years turning the tradie into an avatar for the Australian dream, justifying an atomisation of the workforce that attacked organised labour in favour of personal tax rebates and concessions.The model thrived through the millennium but has not aged so well as the share of national income to wages has fallen, and the gap between working people and the propertied class has grown only wider.A final table in this week’s report suggest that Australians are up for some sort of recalibration from the status quo where investments and shares are taxed lower than wages.In Australia, money earned from wages and salaries and money earned from investments and assets like property and shares are taxed differently. Which of the following is closest to your view?Two-thirds of respondents support a change, which is why I think Labor remains relaxed in the face of what has been a concerted onslaught from parts of the media and political chancers over the past fortnight.This was always going to be the budget that defined Labor’s term and this generation of representatives, many of whom lived through the failure of the Rudd-Gillard era and subsequent decade in the wilderness.Notwithstanding the changes will be incremental and concessions grandfathered, this is a story that Labor can tell its progressive base that aligns with it mission. Told well it has the potential to connect with those moving to the political fringes because they do not believe the system works for them any more.But in challenging the logic of the Howard government’s shareholder society, the budget also gives the Liberal party its best chance to re-anchor itself on something it believes in.After spending the last two cycles in a defensive crouch, with elections won over the deficiencies of Scott Morrison then Peter Dutton, the Coalition now has the chance to test whether its vision of the individual thriving in a world free of the burdens of an interventionist state still has any legs.So how has the budget landed? Like everything in politics, that depends on the questions we ask. Will there be political pain? Yes. Does housing remain a burning platform to confront? Clearly. Will the politics of the next two years be fought on ground the government is comfortable occupying? Absolutely.