Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

$113,832 Vol.$113,832 Vol.Nov 3, 2026Democrat$81,847 Vol.74%Republican$31,985 Vol.26%Polymarket$113,832 Vol.$113,832 Vol.Nov 3, 2026Democrat$81,847 Vol.74%Republican$31,985 Vol.26%This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.The retirement of Democratic incumbent Gary Peters has created an open Michigan U.S. Senate seat for the November 2026 general election in a state decided by narrow margins in recent cycles. The Democratic primary on August 4 features a competitive three-way contest among Abdul El-Sayed, Mallory McMorrow, and Haley Stevens, while Mike Rogers holds a strong position for the Republican nomination. Early general-election matchups show the race within a few points, consistent with toss-up ratings from major forecasters, yet trader consensus assigns Democrats a substantial lead due to the party's recent performance in Michigan Senate contests, candidate positioning in key suburban and urban areas, and structural factors such as turnout patterns. No major developments have altered the field in the past month.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETVolume$113,832End DateNov 3, 2026Market OpenedOct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.