The Treasury Yield Line That Could Break This Bull Market

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In 2007, the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5%. Within 18 months, the S&P 500 had lost half its value.

Today, it’s sitting around 4.6% — and climbing. Which is why, for the first time in years, serious investors are asking a question that usually precedes trouble: are bonds starting to beat stocks?

The honest answer is almost. But not quite.

Here’s where things actually stand. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.5- to 4.6% and rising. The forward earnings yield on the S&P 500, according to StreetStats, is 4.78%.