"Some Progress Made" In Iran Peace Talks, Mediators Claim; Trump Says 'Solid 50/50' On 'Blowing Them To Kingdom Come'

SummaryMediators believe they are edging closer to a deal to extend the US ceasefire with Iran by 60 days Rubio from India: "There’s been some progress made. Even as I speak to you now, there’s some work being done."Trump says he's a “solid 50/50” whether he would be able to make a “good” deal or else “blow them to kingdom come”.Waiting game in Tehran, via Iran Foreign Ministry: "We need to wait and see what happens over the next three to four days."CBS says White House, Pentagon currently preparing for a new potential round of military strikes against Iran within the next three days.Trump, officials have canceled prior travel plans: Trump says "Circumstances pertaining to Government" are keeping him from attending his son Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding this weekend.US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Yes 8% · No 93%View full market & trade on Polymarket* * *US and Iran Move Closer to Extending Ceasefire by 60 days, say MediatorsThe FT reports that mediators believe they are edging closer to a deal to extend the US ceasefire with Iran by 60 days and lay the framework for discussions on the Islamic republic’s nuclear programme.People briefed on the high-stakes talks said it would include a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a commitment to discuss the diluting or handing over of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.🇮🇷 Iran's foreign ministry spokesman: ▫️We are focused on finalizing the MOU▫️A 30 and 60 day timeframe is included in the text of the MOU.▫️But as long as the MOU has not been agreed, this period has not yet begun.▫️Over the past week, the two sides' positions have been… pic.twitter.com/GXzrKHj4WI— Nader Itayim | ‌‌نادر ایتیّم (@ncitayim) May 23, 2026 The US would also ease its blockade of Iranian ports and, in phases, agree to sanctions relief and unfreezing Tehran’s assets held overseas.Donald Trump told Axios on Saturday that he would meet his senior officials to discuss the proposal, but the US president added it was a “solid 50/50” whether he would be able to make a “good” deal or else “blow them to kingdom come”.He was also expected to hold a call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Turkey on Saturday, an Arab official said.Rubio on Deal, Enrichment, & 'Progress'Secretary of State Rubio speaks from India:Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Saturday said progress has been made in the ongoing peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, saying the war will be solved “one way or the other” amid a visit to India.“There’s been some progress made. Even as I speak to you now, there’s some work being done,” Rubio told reporters in Delhi. “This issue needs to be solved, as the president said, one way or the other.”The US top diplomat has issued a lot of words but with little substance in terms of anything 'new' suggesting any level of breakthrough:Rubio: "There might be some news (on Iran) later today. There may not be. I hope there will be. I am not sure yet. There has been some progress done. Even as I speak to you now there is some work being done. There is a chance that maybe later today, tomorrow, maybe couple of days we may have something to say, but this issue needs to be solved one way or another. Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. The strait needs to be open without tolls. They need to Give their enriched Uranium. We need to address the issue of enrichment. The president’s preference is to deal with it in a diplomatic way. That is what we are working on right now."Latest Statements from Tehran on Draft StatusVia Bloomberg: Iran's talks with the US are focused on ending the war on all fronts, and neither the nuclear issue nor sanctions are being discussed at this stage, state TV cites Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei as saying:“We need to wait and see what happens over the next three to four days.”“After the memorandum of understanding is finalized, it will have to be negotiated in later stages.”“The final draft of an agreement text between Iran and the US is still under review.”Says 30- and 60-day timeframes have been included in the text.“In recent days discussions and proposals were raised regarding certain points and wording where differences of opinion still existed. Some of these are still under review and pending final assessment.”“At this very early stage, the matter of releasing frozen assets must be clarified.”War Preparation Underway: CBSCBS is reporting that the Trump administration, specifically the Pentagon - as well as intelligence community officials - are currently preparing for a new potential round of military strikes against Iran within the next three days.However, like with much of the latest speculation and reporting regarding what comes next in the Iran war, the report included the important caveat that nothing is ultimately confirmed or final: "No final decision on strikes had been reached as of Friday afternoon."Any new US attack would likely see Israel join in, & Tehran vows it would retaliate. Getty Images"Some members of the US military and intelligence community canceled their plans for the Memorial Day weekend in anticipation of possible strikes," several sources said."Defense and intelligence officials began updating recall rosters for US installations overseas as tranches of troops stationed in the Middle East rotate out of theater, part of an effort to reduce the American military footprint in the region amid concern about possible Iranian retaliation," CBS said.Trump Sticking Near OvalAdditionally, Trump's own Truth Social post about missing his son's wedding has set off an avalanche of speculation that renewed attacks are imminent."Circumstances pertaining to Government" are keeping him from attending his son Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding this weekend, Trump wrote in the post. "I feel it is important for me to remain in Washington, D.C., at the White House during this important period of time. Congratulations to Don and Bettina!" Trump said. The day prior he had been vague in answering reporters' questions on the matter."He’d like me to go, but it’s going to be just a small little private affair, and I’m going to try and make it," he had said. A number of pundits noted the ease with which he frequently goes down to Florida to play golf, and that it's strange that he would now miss his son's wedding. However, the wedding is being held out of country, at a small island in the Bahamas, and so this does bring with it extra logistical and security planning and logistics.As for potential new military action, it's obvious that Trump has been growing increasingly impatient and frustrated about Iran's lack of compromise when it comes to negotiations over several days and weeks.The White House has made recovery of the country's enriched uranium a top priority, while Tehran has repeatedly slammed the door on this as an option and has not budged. The Iranians aren't even making the nuclear issue part of talks to achieve peace, and have made clear their view this would be for future, post-war negotiations.More Latest Negotiations Back-and-ForthUS-Iran de-escalation hopes drove crude oil and rates lower and put a bid in equities by the end of Friday's trading day, amid speculation that President Trump would stay at the White House over Memorial Day weekend instead of attending Donald Trump Jr. and Bettina Anderson’s wedding celebrations in the Bahamas."As Iran/oil/rates pressure eased on de-escalation hopes, leadership rotated toward small caps, equal weight, housing, transports, discretionary, and selective defensive growth, with short covering in high short-interest/profitless tech and consumer cyclicals reinforcing the catch-up trade," UBS analyst Torsten Sippel wrote in a note to clients late Friday.Early Saturday morning, Bloomberg reports that President Trump held a phone call with Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, regarding Pakistani-led efforts to de-escalate Gulf tensions and preserve the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.Iran's top negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir in Tehran earlier today amid ongoing diplomatic efforts to bring the US and Iran to a peace deal, Reuters reported, citing Iranian state media. Ghalibaf told Munir that Iran's Armed Forces "have rebuilt themselves during the cease-fire in such a way that if Trump foolishly restarts the war, they will definitely be more crushing and bitter for the U.S. than on the first day of the war." The Iranian top negotiator also said, "We will not compromise on the rights of our nation and country."There was a series of headlines from Sky News Arabia, citing sources, indicating that a major push for regional diplomacy was underway earlier today, with officials from Iraq, Oman, Jordan, and Qatar working to mediate with Tehran to avert another flare-up in the conflict. Sky News Arabia sources said Pakistan’s mediator helped break the deadlock over the Iranian nuclear file, though several major issues remain unresolved, including the conflict in Lebanon, sanctions on bank accounts, the status of Iranian ports, and the presence of U.S. military forces in the Gulf area.Iran is reportedly demanding the lifting of restrictions on its ports and a U.S. military withdrawal from the region before reopening the Strait of Hormuz and entering a new round of talks within 30 days.There is also a reported internal conflict between Iran’s government and the Revolutionary Guard over Tehran’s negotiating demands.Latest Headline Round-UpLatest negotiation headlines (via sources) from Sky News Arabia:Iranian Foreign Ministry: Iraqi and the Omani Foreign Minister discuss in a phone call the ongoing diplomatic efforts to prevent escalationThe foreign ministers of Jordan and Qatar affirm the necessity of concerted efforts to ensure the success of mediation efforts with Iran to reach a sustainable solution that addresses all the roots of the crisis and prevents the renewal of escalation.The Foreign Ministers of Jordan and Qatar affirm the continuation of coordination of efforts to support targeted mediation aimed at ending the escalation in the region and restoring security and stability.Sources to Sky News Arabia: The Pakistani mediator has succeeded in overcoming the deadlock on the Iranian nuclear file.Sources to Sky News Arabia: The issues that have not yet been resolved include stopping the war in Lebanon and lifting the ban on financial accounts.Sources to Sky News Arabia: Iran demands the lifting of the siege on Iranian ports and the withdrawal of military forces from the region to open the Strait of Hormuz and proceed to a round of negotiations within a 30-day timeframe.Sources to Sky News Arabia: There is a severe disagreement between the Iranian government and the Revolutionary Guard regarding Iran's demands for negotiations.Additional overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):Economic ImpactThe dollar ended the week nearly unchanged as risk assets got a boost from optimism around US-Iran peace talks [BN]Germany's business outlook improved for the first time since the Iran war began, with an expectations index rising to 83.8 in May [BN]UK retail sales fell 1.3% as consumers made fewer car journeys amid the global energy shock from the Iran war [BN]Qatar Airways will skip bonuses for almost 60,000 workers this year after the war forced cancellation of tens of thousands of flights [BN]Military ReadinessThe US halted arms sales to Taiwan to ensure sufficient munitions for the Iran war, according to Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao [BN]Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard resigned from her post, with her anti-war views having spurred tension with the White House [BN]Trade DisruptionJapan is set to receive its first Persian Gulf oil shipment to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the war began, with the Idemitsu Maru carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude [BN]Anglo American is redirecting Brazilian iron ore output to Asia as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz prevents shipments to Bahrain Steel [BN]Friday's US-Iran WrapIran Says 'No Deal' Will Materialize If US Insists On Enriched Uranium HandoverHormuz Chokepoint:Iran Says 35 Ships Exited Strait Of Hormuz As Rubio Condemns TollsChart of the Day (read UBS note): Fuel Shock Risks Begin Spilling Into Broader EconomyHormuz Shock Raises Recession Risk As Retailers Sound Alarm On Consumer StressProfessional subscribers can review the latest institutional reads on Iran, Hormuz, energy markets, and more at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.