Dublin Central: Social Democrat Daniel Ennis likely to top poll, according to tally

Main PointsThe margins between success and failure could be wafer thin, says Pat LeahyCounting began at 9am with results expected by early eveningClick for live coverage of the Galway West byelection count Key ReadsWhat are voters’ five big issues in Dublin Central and Galway West byelections?In the News podcast: Who will win the Dublin Central and Galway West byelections?Polymarket betting on Dublin Central byelection to be examined by officialsOpinion: We finally know how much money shapes Irish electionsAll Irish Times polling coverage and data, including the most pressing issues for voters, can be accessed hereSarah Burns - 33 minutes agoIf the first count reflects the tally tabulation, on 4.1%, this will be Fianna Fáil's worst ever election performance, beating their record low seen at the Dublin Bay South by-election in 2021.#ByElection26 https://t.co/JgZcJOToPp— Ireland Votes (@Ireland_Votes) May 23, 2026

Sarah Burns - 46 minutes agoSarah Burns - 54 minutes agoSocial Democrat Daniel Ennis likely to top poll, according to tallyWe have a full tally in Dublin Central – and on these numbers, there looks to be a clear winner – Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats, reports political correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones.Dublin city councillor Ennis looks like topping the poll, a major victory for the party which was expected to poll strongly – but not to eclipse Sinn Féin’s candidate Janice Boylan in the home constituency of that party’s leader Mary Lou McDonald. The final tally has Ennis on 19.5 per cent of first preference votes, ahead of Boylan on 17.8 per cent. Anything less than a seismic upset would see the seat going to Ennis if the count reflects the unofficial tally undertaken by the combined parties in the RDS. He is expected to be a transfer magnet to the extent that he would have likely overhauled Boylan unless she had a massive lead – if he’s out in front and transfers from the other left parties pan out as expected, it’s all over bar the shouting in the race for Paschal Donohoe’s former seat. On these numbers, Boylan will underperform the Sinn Féin 2024 performance badly, when the party took 23.34 per cent of first preference votes between Boylan and party leader Mary Lou McDonald.That, obviously, would be very bad news for McDonald who will doubtlessly face renewed scrutiny of her record after failing to deliver in her own back yard. It looks to be a disappointing day for the Government parties, with John Stephens currently tallying at just 4.2 per cent of the vote – veering towards the catastrophic. Micheál Martin will likely point to previous underwhelming byelection results which did not presage a wider collapse for his party – such as Dublin Bay South in 2021 – but it’s a bad day for Fianna Fáil. As for Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam, the putative successor to Paschal Donohoe, is on 10.7 per cent of the completed tally, down significantly on the 16.77 per cent the former Minister for Finance garnered in 2024. If this pans out, it looks like he will be beaten into fifth place.One of those outperforming McAdam in the tally is the Green Party candidate Janet Horner who has put in a really strong showing amounting to a mini-resurgence for the party – she’s on 11.5 per cent of the final tally. The Green candidate in 2024, Neasa Hourigan, got just under 6 per cent of the first preference vote.Outside of the fight for the seat itself, the main talking point has to be the strength of the combined vote for veteran criminal Gerry Hutch and independent anti-immigration councillor Malachy Steenson. The pair polled a combined 14.35 per cent of first preference votes in 2024. With all boxes tallied, Hutch is in fourth place on 11.4 per cent (2024: 9.46 per cent), with the tally suggesting that Steenson has significantly grown his 2024 vote. He’s sitting on 9.5 per cent in the tally (2024: 4.89 per cent). The centre left may win the seat, but the anti-establishment energy on the right in Dublin Central is swelling – and it looks to be pulling support from Sinn Féin, while the party is also likely bleeding support on the left.Social Democrat candidate Daniel Ennis arrives at the polling station to cast his ballot on Friday. Photograph: Enda O'Dowd/The Irish Times Sarah Burns - 1 hour agoDaniel Ennis the front-runner in Dublin while it looks like a long count set for Galway There’s hardly enough space on the page for the number of caveats that you’d need to include at this stage – boxes only just open, incomplete tallies, first count hours away, and so on, and so on, writes political editor Pat Leahy. But going on the limited information that we have at this stage it is possible to say one thing about each of the byelections counts currently under way in Dublin and Galway.In Dublin, expectations that the front-runner would be the Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis are being borne out as the boxes are opened in the RDS. Some of the partial tallies so far have Ennis even topping the poll, though others have the Sinn Féin candidate Janice Boylan ahead. However, Boylan needs to beat Ennis by a lot on the first count to stay ahead of him when transfers come in on the later counts – and so far, there is no sign of that happening. We will know a lot more by lunchtime, but that is the picture that has emerged in the first couple of hours.In Galway, with about a quarter of the boxes tallied at the time of writing, the picture is a lot more complicated. It looks like a three – or perhaps even four – horse race. Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne and Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas are out ahead of everyone else. But there is a lot of left-wing votes to be transferred in the later counts and it looks like Labour’s Helen Ogbu will be the leading candidate of the left and so best placed to get them. If that left-wing vote stays largely together, it will push her up towards the two leaders in the later counts. She needs to stay ahead of the independent Mike Cubbard, who is showing strongly in the early stage. But it’s possible to see a path to the seat for Ogbu even at this early stage.Either way, Galway looks like being a long count, almost certainly running into tomorrow. Dublin, at this stage, looks more straightforward. But all those health warnings apply.Counting in the Dublin Central byelection at the RDS in Dublin. Photograph: Alan Betson / The Irish Times