Main PointsThe margins between success and failure could be wafer thin, so expect a frantic final few days on the ground, says Pat LeahyCounting starts on Saturday morning with results expected by early eveningKey ReadsWhat are voters’ five big issues in Dublin Central and Galway West byelections?In the News podcast: Who will win the Dublin Central and Galway West byelections?Polymarket betting on Dublin Central byelection to be examined by officialsOpinion: We finally know how much money shapes Irish electionsAll Irish Times polling coverage and data, including the most pressing issues for voters, can be accessed hereSarah Burns - 17 minutes agoThe race is expected to come down to a battle between Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan and the Social Democrats Daniel Ennis, based on our polling (the usual health warnings apply - higher margin of error, and the fact that we’ve had some campaigning between now and then). Everyone will also be watching out for how veteran criminal Gerry Hutch gets on - can he build on his 2024 figure? Here’s our full polling results. Talking to one person in the Social Democrats late last night, their feeling was that the leafier suburbs of Glasnevin and Drumcondra doing well on turnout was promising, and the lower inner city turnout may hurt Hutch - while Cabra West going well on turnout was good for Sinn Féin. But with a lower turnout, it also matters how much it’s down and where - this could make a really important difference. Political correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones says these are the things he will be watching out for: Hutch and Sinn FéinSinn Féin are likely to struggle for transfers relative to Ennis, so they need their heartlands, like around Cabra, to turn out strongly - and for a strong showing in the inner city. Signs of them matching or exceeding Mary Lou McDonald’s 2024 percentages in these boxes will indicate if Sinn Féin’s ‘get out the vote’ effort has succeeded or struggled. It’s a similar story for Hutch - how is he performing against Sinn Féin in these areas - is he building his 2024 vote, is the gap to Sinn Féin bigger or smaller? Has he managed to mobilise his vote? This also matters for the larger party, whose anti-establishment vote is vulnerable to any Hutch surge (true to a lesser extent for Malachy Steenson, the independent anti-immigration councillor running in the election). Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan and Independent candidate Gerard Hutch. Photograph: Sam Boal/Collins Photos Fine Gael and EnnisIf Daniel Ennis outperforms the rest of the left (Labour, Green Party and People Before Profit) as is expected, an interesting question is how he performs relative to Fine Gael’s Ray McAdam in the likes of Drumcondra, Phibsboro and Glasnevin - places where Paschal Donohoe pulled in a lot of his vote. But the sitting TD for the Social Democrats, Gary Gannon, also builds a vote here. So, is Ennis matching or even out-performing McAdam, who is expected to do OK but not come into the final reckoning? This will be a bellwether. Daniel Ennis at St Columba’s National School, North Strand, Dublin 3. Photograph: Collins photos How far can Fianna Fáil fall?John Stephens, the Fianna Fáil candidate, is not expected to do well in a constituency where the party hasn’t won a seat since Bertie Ahern’s era. But just how will he get on? And what will that mean for the rumblings of discontent in Fianna Fáil about Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s leadership? Taoiseach Micheal Martin during a press conference with the Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Friday.Photograph: Liam McBurney/PA Wire What happens next?Once the votes start being counted, we’re expected the parties to run a combined effort to tally votes (an unofficial but pretty reliable count) - so early snaps of individual tally sheets in the RDS will be overtaken by data from that as it’s built out. We had a 100 per cent tally in 2024 around 12.30pm, that’s going to be a pretty reliable indication of how the first count will shake out, which will come a little while after that. We’ll keep you up to date throughout the day on this live story, and the results as they come in will be available here. Sarah Burns - 22 minutes agoGood morning - it’s count day in Dublin Central and Galway West. In the capital, boxes will be opened from around 9am at the RDS in Ballsbridge in the race to fill the seat vacated by former Fine Gael minister Paschal Donohoe.Political correspondent Jack Horgan-Jones has been up early looking at what we should be watching out for in the very early stages of the count.The official turnout estimate for Dublin Central is the first bit of data we have, he writes. Across five polling stations, here’s the figures from the returning officer last night:St. Paul’s CBS, 25 per cent: Sean O’Casey, 37.5 per cent; St Finbarrs NS, 48.6 per cent; Deaf Village, 40.3 per cent; Glasnevin NS, 46 per cent. Average turnout: 39.48 per cent. So, turnout is down on the General Election 2024 figure of 52.27 per cent. This is to be expected - turnout is almost always lower in byelections than general elections. It also looks to be down on the last byelection held in the constituency in 2009, when turnout was 46.3 per cent. What counts as good and what counts as bad? We’ll turn to the ever-reliable Adrian Kavanagh for a quick look: By-election contests with the lowest turnout levels between 1980 and 2021 Turnouts in 2019 artificially low as contests took place at a point in time when next general election was expected to take place within a matter of months Particular focus on Dublin constituencies here pic.twitter.com/c4hMxuYoIZ— Adrian Kavanagh (@AdrianKavanagh) May 22, 2026