Whoever leads Labour at the next general election, the party’s message will be “things are getting better – don’t let Reform ruin it”. Andy Burnham’s great challenge, if he clears the hurdle of the Makerfield by-election and is installed as prime minister, is making that credible.
I remember with a shudder the findings of a focus group held while I was working in 10 Downing Street between 2024 and 2025. There were early signs that things were improving. Wages were outpacing prices. NHS waiting lists were coming down.
But when we suggested to the group that the Government’s plan was working, their reaction was not agreement or even derision. They burst out laughing. After almost two decades of stagnating or falling living standards, making people feel their lives are improving is a herculean task.
It is not one that is getting any easier. At the start of this year Keir Starmer declared that every moment spent not talking about the cost of living was a moment wasted because forecasts suggested people would start to feel better off in 2026.
Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran has blown that out of the water. And Shabana Mahmood’s success in bringing down immigration will also cause problems for whoever presents Labour’s autumn Budget because the Office for Budget Responsibility equates lower migration with lower growth, which means less money to spend.
