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Listening to Disney insiders, their message is clear: The Mandalorian and Grogu will charm audiences and make money, dank farrik.
The latest estimate for the film’s four-day weekend global box office is $160 million-$170 million or more, slightly up over early tracking a few weeks back, with The Mandalorian expected to best the $148 million global bow of 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story. Domestically, it could end up with $95 million to $100 million range for the four days, short of Solo‘s $103 million four-day number over the 2018 Memorial Day frame. In other words, there may be apocalyptic “worst opening for a Disney Star Wars movie ever” headlines come Sunday and Monday.
The film wasn’t expensive by Star Wars standards — it has the lowest production budget of any previous title made since Disney acquired Lucasfilm. But nor was it cheap: $165 million before a global ad campaign of at least $100 million, likely more. Those close to Disney’s decision-making confirm the Jon Favreau film needs to make $500 to $600 million globally to land in the black. Solo topped out at only $393 million globally, but Mando already has far better audience scores that combat heavily mixed reviews, with critics granting it a 62 percent Rotten Tomatoes score. The Mandalorian‘s audience score on Rotten Tomatoes is currently an upbeat 88 percent.
