France’s Finance Minister Roland Lescure has drawn a line in the sand on strategic oil reserves. In an interview with the Financial Times, Lescure said governments need to understand how long and how intense the Iran conflict will be before cracking open the emergency stash.

“We cannot release stocks, which are by nature finite, without having visibility on the duration and intensity of the conflict at this stage,” Lescure told the Financial Times.

Translation: don’t burn through your backup plan when you have no idea how bad things are going to get. It’s a reasonable position on paper. For energy markets and crypto alike, it means the volatility isn’t going anywhere soon.

The supply shock nobody can ignore

The International Energy Agency has characterized the 2026 Iran conflict as one of the largest supply shocks in history. That’s not hyperbole dressed up in a press release. Oil futures have surged by over 25% on some contracts, driven largely by disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a massive share of global oil shipments pass.