Kenya's 2027 election has produced a situation that would be remarkable if the stakes were not so high: an incumbent president whose approval has eroded sharply, but who faces an opposition that has a genuine opening and still cannot agree on who walks through it.

President William Ruto enters the final stretch of his first term with a coalition held together more by political co-optation than shared conviction, an impeached former deputy president prowling his backyard with a grievance and a megaphone, and a generation of new voters politicised not by his vision but by a Finance Bill his government tried to pass over their protests.