Taiwan’s government has signaled openness to a phone call between President Lai Ching-te and US President Donald Trump, a move that would mark the most significant direct presidential contact between Washington and Taipei in years. The last time Trump picked up the phone to call a Taiwanese president, in December 2016, it shattered nearly four decades of diplomatic protocol and sent shockwaves through global markets.

That 2016 conversation with then-President Tsai Ing-wen was the first direct US-Taiwan presidential contact since 1979, when Washington formally recognized Beijing. Now Trump appears ready for a sequel, and crypto markets should be paying close attention.

Why a phone call matters more than you’d think

For most people, a phone call between two national leaders sounds like a Tuesday. For the US-China relationship, it’s the geopolitical equivalent of pulling a pin on a grenade and seeing what happens.

China considers Taiwan a breakaway province. Any direct leader-level contact between Washington and Taipei is viewed in Beijing as a challenge to its sovereignty. Chinese President Xi Jinping has been explicit on this point, warning during Trump’s state visit to Beijing that mismanagement of the Taiwan issue could result in outright conflict between the two superpowers.