TL;DROpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for an IPO as soon as this week, targeting a trillion-dollar autumn debut with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Prediction market odds swung sharply in its favour, with Anthropic’s chances of listing first collapsing from 69 per cent to 20 per cent.
The AI industry’s most consequential race is no longer about building the best model. It is about getting to public markets first. OpenAI appears to have taken the lead.
The company is preparing to confidentially file a draft of its IPO prospectus as soon as this week, according to CNBC, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley advising on the process. The target is an autumn debut, potentially as early as September, at a valuation that could exceed $1 trillion.
That timeline caught prediction market traders off guard. Before the Wall Street Journal first reported the filing plans, Kalshi traders gave OpenAI just a 32 per cent chance of beating Anthropic to a public listing. That figure has since jumped to 83 per cent. On Polymarket, the odds of Anthropic going public first collapsed from 69 per cent to 20 per cent in a matter of hours.
“Getting to public markets first is very important, given this arms race going on,” said Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities’ global head of technology research. The logic is straightforward: the first major AI company to list captures the bulk of institutional capital allocated to the sector, sets the valuation benchmark, and forces rivals to price against it.The 💜 of EU techThe latest rumblings from the EU tech scene, a story from our wise ol' founder Boris, and some questionable AI art. It's free, every week, in your inbox. Sign up now!
