Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped around 6% since revisiting its 200-day moving average near $82,000 earlier this month, after first breaking below the indicator in November. Nevertheless, February's bottom of around $60,000 still marks this cycle's maximum drawdown, according to analysts at research and brokerage firm K33.
The rejection has reignited debate over whether another leg down lies ahead, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde noted in a new report, amid concerns the current move could mirror rallies in 2014, 2018, and 2022 that ultimately led to fresh lows.
BTCUSD, 200D MA, overlaid with days where BTCUSD touches 200D MA from below. Image: K33.
However, the current pattern looks different, in Lunde's view, with bitcoin spending 189 days between the November 200-day moving average breakdown and May retest — far longer than the 96, 132, and 85 days seen in those prior cycles. Bitcoin also remains more than 20% down during that period compared to positive returns in 2014 and 2022 and a shallower drawdown of around 8% in 2018, Lunde noted, with the 200-day moving average trending higher in those years, but lower in 2026.
"Past rallies recovered quickly, rebuilding risk appetite and leverage and setting up the unwind that fueled the next leg lower," Lunde wrote. "The current slow grind has not."
