Four Republican-held congressional districts are at the center of it: the Bucks County-centric 1st held by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA); the Lehigh Valley-based 7th held by Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA); the 8th, covering Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and northeastern Pennsylvania represented by Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-PA); and the 10th covering the Harrisburg and York areas held by Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA).“Pennsylvania isn’t just a swing state anymore — it’s the swing state,” political analyst Mike Fahey told the Washington Examiner. “If Democrats are going to win the House, the road runs directly through those four districts. The margins are razor-thin.”
From top left, clockwise: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Ryan Mackenzie (R-PA), Scott Perry (R-PA), and Rob Bresnahan (R-PA). (AP photos)
The four races are also shaping up as a high-stakes test of President Donald Trump’s staying power at the halfway mark of his second White House term. Gov. Josh Shapiro‘s (D-PA) political capital is also on the line, as he seeks a second gubernatorial term ahead of a widely expected bid for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination.
The Trump White House has pushed for a political insurance policy through redistricting. That effort got a huge victory in late April with a Supreme Court ruling striking down Louisiana’s congressional map under the Voting Rights Act. The ruling set off a chain reaction in southern states where Republicans dominate. Yet, even a single flip from Democrats in swing states like Pennsylvania could decide control of the House.
