South Africa’s economic recovery is facing fresh pressure after a surge in global oil prices linked to the escalating Middle East conflict forced analysts to cut growth forecasts and warn of rising inflation risks for Africa’s most industrialised economy.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said on Tuesday it had lowered South Africa’s 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.7%, citing higher energy costs, renewed market volatility and growing risks to fuel supplies.
The downgrade comes as the war-linked disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes, continues to shake global oil and fuel markets.
Around one-fifth of the world’s oil trade normally passes through the strait, making any disruption a major threat to energy-importing economies.
South Africa is particularly vulnerable because it now relies heavily on imported refined fuel after years of refinery closures and declining domestic refining capacity.
