After the pomp and ceremony of US President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing last week – his first in nearly 10 years – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s summit with President Xi Jinping on Wednesday may seem underwhelming. But it is not because Beijing attaches less importance to the relationship. It reflects mutual trust between the two, and the fact that Putin has been an annual visitor for the past 10 years except for two Covid-19 pandemic years. As a result, he has forged a strong rapport and the two nations are strategically aligned.On that level, apart from coordinating geopolitical strategy towards the United States, the two sides can be expected to reaffirm support for maintaining the post-war world order, a timely response to Japan’s attempt to rearm.The deal outlook is more complex. It revolves around energy. The biggest item is a potentially large oil and gas deal. A deepening global energy crisis arising from the war on Iran and blockading of the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for oil and gas shipments – has temporarily raised the oil prices commanded by Russia, a major producer. But it faces longer-term risks.Defections from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), most recently by the United Arab Emirates, have weakened the organisation’s ability to regulate price, and will lead to a fragmented global energy market. This will strengthen the hand of the big oil buyers – particularly China. Russia is already facing sanctions from the West, with no immediate prospect that they will be lifted. Even if the US did so, Europe may not follow. So Russia needs to secure a long-term deal with Beijing.For China, the attraction will be in securing alternative energy routes to reduce its exposure to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and reduce chokepoint risks on sea routes. Also, the two sides are likely to agree to conduct the business in yuan, which will boost the currency’s internationalisation.Price could be a sticking point, with Moscow understood to be looking at more than US$100 per barrel.