SINGAPORE: Chinese President Xi Jinping will be revelling in the perception that all roads lead to Beijing. He welcomed Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing on Wednesday (May 20), just days after hosting United States President Donald Trump for a hotly anticipated summit.These back-to-back visits clearly show China’s geopolitical weight. But what is striking is how cautiously Mr Xi is using this growing influence.Both visits come at a time when Mr Trump and Mr Putin are grappling with wars of their own making, wars that they have not yet found a way out of.Russia has become far more dependent on China since it attacked Ukraine in February 2022. Faced with sweeping sanctions and economic isolation, Moscow relies on trade with Beijing as one of its greatest lifelines.
On the other hand, Mr Trump is confronting the limits of his coercive strategy in Iran. The Iranian regime has not collapsed as swiftly as he anticipated and instead, continues to control what transits through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s vital shipping lanes.For China, this is a uniquely advantageous moment: Russia and the US are experiencing self-inflicted difficulties while the rest of the world is forced to bear the consequences of their wars.China, by contrast, can present itself as a stable power – and one with the leverage to shape these crises. But Beijing has shown remarkably little appetite to do so.PRESERVING LEVERAGE OVER RUSSIAChina’s preferred lever of international influence is its economic power.Mr Putin seeks maximum benefit from this, with Russia and China signing 22 agreements during his visit covering technology and trade cooperation. China currently accounts for about a third of Russia’s trade.But China is still preserving its leverage over Russia. It is yet to greenlight the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline that would bring it Russian gas previously supplied to Europe. Russia has pushed the pipeline project for years, but it has stalled over disagreements.
