Large parts of the Amazon rainforest have been cleared for cattle ranchingParalaxis/Alamy
Destruction of rainforest for cattle ranching is making the Amazon biome more vulnerable to irreversible collapse, which could occur within decades if deforestation continues.
A landmark 2022 study on tipping points found the Amazon would likely suffer widespread dieback at global warming of 3.5°C and potentially as low as 2°C. That’s worrying, as estimates put Earth on track to warm by about 2.6°C to 2.7°C above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100. But the research didn’t include deforestation, which has already resulted in the loss of at least 15 per cent of the Amazon.
Nico Wunderling at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and his colleagues have now modelled Amazon dieback with scenarios involving both rising global temperatures and severe deforestation until 2050. If total forest loss increases to 22 per cent, the Amazon could suffer widespread dieback with as little as 1.5°C of global warming, they found. The world has already experienced 1.3°C to 1.4°C of warming and could hit 1.5°C by the end of this decade.
Deforestation slowed last year, but if it resurges, the Amazon could cross a tipping point as soon as 2031. The timing and extent of dieback predicted by the model varied depending on how much carbon humanity emits, with deforestation rates of 22 to 28 per cent leading to 62 to 77 per cent of the Amazon biome becoming grassland, savanna or scrubby forest.
