WASHINGTON—US President Donald Trump heads to China this week for his long-awaited summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Expectations are modest. On both sides, decision-making is highly concentrated in the top leader, so this face-to-face meeting is essential for managing tensions. But the visit is unlikely to produce a true reset.
Washington and Beijing are stuck in an uneasy dynamic marked by deep distrust, mutual economic exposure, and growing efforts on both sides to disentangle their economies before that dependence can be weaponized. Common interests are hard to find, and turning the few that do exist into something that looks like real cooperation would require more political capital than either side seems to be willing to invest at this moment.
Tactical gains, not strategic breakthroughs
As they move around Beijing, both leaders will be grappling for tactical gains. Xi will likely seek US concessions on technology export controls, Taiwan, and tariffs. Trump will likely seek large Chinese purchases of US goods, more US access to China’s rare earths, and progress on fentanyl cooperation. Trump will also want the kind of pageantry that frames the visit—and his handling of China—as a success for the US audience.
