Aluminium prices remain elevated amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with prolonged supply disruptions and concerns over tighter global inventories keeping sentiment firmly bullish. The supply shortages are acting as structural tailwinds, and any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict could trigger sharp spikes in prices due to already depleted global stockpiles.May aluminium contracts were trading higher on the MCX around 2:30 pm, rising by 0.4% to hit the day's high of Rs 382.85 per kg.Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Research at Religare Broking, said aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have risen by 2.2% over the past month, bringing the total increase over the last year to roughly 45.2%. The market outlook remains strong as supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to drag on, he said.“A standoff between the US and Iran has worsened following an exchange of threats, which has completely halted cargo ship traffic through the Persian Gulf. Additionally, direct attacks on the region's largest refineries mean it will take much longer for normal production to recover. The market emphasises that these high prices are driven by lasting supply shortages, rather than just an increase in demand,” Mishra said, emphasising that global stockpiles are currently so low that even a small buying order or minor news about the US-Iran conflict could trigger a massive, sudden spike in prices. Technical outlookETMarkets.comDecoding the charts, Mishra said the MCX Aluminium futures price is trading above all the major moving averages, indicative of a strong long-term uptrend. The candles are respecting a rising trend channel, the Religare analyst said, adding weekly closes are consistently higher, showing institutional buying support. “The EMA alignment is bullish, i.e. the fast EMA is above the medium EMA while the medium EMA remains above the long EMA. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, conveying that the overall momentum is positive,” he added.Also read: Commodity Radar: Rupee's record lows support gold prices. Can fresh base formation trigger upside?Trading strategy Mishra places this week’s resistance at the Rs 390-392 level, with support lying between Rs 369 and 371. He maintains a buy-on-dips strategy towards the Rs 376-378 zone, keeping stops below 368 and a target objective of 389-390. (Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)