Worst-case projections for temperature rise by the end of the century have been revised as mitigation measures start to bear fruit.
The plummeting cost of solar and wind energy has put a high-fossil-fuel future increasingly out of reach and climate policies are helping to drive down emissions, which are now tracking below former worst-case assumptions.
Some of the world’s top climate scientists now believe a previously projected 4.5°C rise by 2100 is no longer plausible, and have reduced the upper limit of their worst-case scenario for global warming to 3.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The revised models come from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), which has created climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes. Led by an international committee of leading climate scientists, its findings will feed into the UN’s future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments.
Still, the worst-case projections are a far cry from the maximum 2°C limit agreed on by countries in the 2015 Paris Agreement and would still bring disastrous consequences for the planet.
