More than half of homes and businesses will still depend on fossil fuels for heat in 2050 under current policies, the State’s clean energy agency has said. The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) said at the current rate of switching to heat pumps and other green heating systems, 60 per cent of buildings would require gas and oil long after they were meant to be phased out. “Existing policies will not deliver a zero-carbon heat system and will leave Ireland heavily reliant on fossil fuels well into mid-century,” it says in a new report. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions targets will be breached, penalties may have to be paid and customers will continue to face price fluctuations. The cost of acting to avoid those problems is put at €206 billion from 2025-2055, compared to €217 billion if current policies are continued. Heating is one of the country’s biggest challenges from an energy and climate perspective. It accounts for more than one-third of all the energy used and generates about a quarter of national greenhouse gas emissions. Around 90 per cent of heat is provided by fossil fuels, with 80 per cent imported.“That means we are at the mercy of international affairs to price one of the core costs to any household or business,” said SEAI chief executive William Walsh. The report says at the current pace of change, fossil fuels will still account for around 60 per cent of heat supply in 2050. “Current policies and measures will only get us part of the way to a more secure, affordable, near-zero-emissions heat sector,” it says. “Delayed action in the 2020s and 2030s will significantly erode Ireland’s remaining carbon budgets, exposing end users to energy-price volatility and increasing both climate risk and the cost of compliance in later years.” Proposals set out in the report would result in the cleanest forms of heat – electricity and heat pumps – meeting 72 per cent of demand by 2055 and cutting emissions by 90 per cent.There must be “clear timelines after which no new fossil fuel boilers can be installed”, the report says. Upfront costs to customers would be significant so grants, tax incentives and reform of electricity tariffs are essential.District heating systems – with multiple buildings heated from a communal source – would be cheaper than installing individual heat pumps, particularly if the source was geothermal or waste heat from industry.Other fuels such as biomethane, hydrogen and bioliquids would have a smaller role, mainly in industry and other hard-to-electrify sectors. “While we are making progress in decarbonising our built environment, more is needed,” Minister for Energy Darragh O’Brien said. “This report sets out pathways to achieve this.”