The New York Knicks are coming off one of the most dominant stretches in NBA postseason history. They swept the Philadelphia 76ers, outscoring them by 89 points—the second-largest margin ever in an NBA second-round series—after closing out their first-round series with a historic 51-point blowout of the Atlanta Hawks.
The Knicks last played on Sunday, May 10, and fans are wondering if their team will lose momentum after the full week off. While the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers duked it out in a physical series that the Cavs won in seven games on Sunday night, the Knicks sat at home awaiting their next opponent.
“It’s good for recovery, but mentally, I’m watching the games just waiting to get back out there,” Knicks forward Josh Hart said in a press conference last week. “It’s a little long.”
The data, however, debunks the notion that the Knicks’ rust will be a factor in the conference finals. Since the modern NBA playoff format was instituted in 1984, there have been 65 series in which one team came in with at least five days off while their opponent had just one day of rest. The better-rested team had a 48-17 record in those series.
If rust was a concern, then teams returning from an extended break should struggle—particularly in Game 1s, before regaining their footing—but that’s not the case. The better-rested teams, as previously defined, have gone 42-23 in Game 1s with an average point differential of +6.8—nearly identical to their 44-21 record with an average margin of +5.5 in Game 2s of those same series.
