Russia may try to test NATO’s unity not only in the Baltic region, as is most often discussed, but in a completely different region where, in its view, there are weak spots, such as Bulgaria.
This possibility was suggested in an interview with Ukrinform by Czech analyst, Vice-Rector of CERVO University in Prague, former Czech government adviser on national security, and diplomat Tomáš Pojar.
According to the expert, we always focus on the idea that if Russia ever decides to test NATO’s unity, it will do so specifically in the Baltics. Indeed, the Baltic states have certain geographical vulnerabilities and are relatively small countries, Pojar noted, but he emphasized that these states are quite well-prepared today.
“Perhaps it is worth considering whether such a test might take place somewhere else entirely. For example, the Black Sea region could be even more interesting from this perspective. Some states there might be perceived as an easier target—for example, Bulgaria,” notes the former security adviser to the Czech government and prime minister.
Bulgaria, he explains, is a NATO member that spends significantly less on defense than the Baltic states. Furthermore, the allies pay less attention to it than to the Baltics. And on top of that, there has been noticeable political instability there for quite some time, with elections held quite frequently in recent years.
